Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.
Identifieur interne : 001055 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001054; suivant : 001056Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.
Auteurs : Jaime Aguayo [France] ; Fabrice Elegbede ; Claude Husson ; François-Xavier Saintonge ; Benoît MarçaisSource :
- Global change biology [ 1365-2486 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- composition chimique : Sol.
- parasitologie : Alnus, Maladies des plantes, Sol.
- physiologie : Phytophthora.
- Basse température, Changement climatique, France, Modèles théoriques, Saisons, Température élevée.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical , chemistry : Soil.
- parasitology : Alnus, Plant Diseases, Soil.
- physiology : Phytophthora.
- Climate Change, Cold Temperature, France, Hot Temperature, Models, Theoretical, Seasons.
Abstract
Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni-induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12601
PubMed: 24729529
Affiliations:
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UMR1136 'Interactions Arbres/Micro-organismes', Université de Lorraine, INRA-Nancy, Champenoux, 54280, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>UMR1136 'Interactions Arbres/Micro-organismes', INRA, INRA-Nancy, Champenoux, 54280, France; UMR1136 'Interactions Arbres/Micro-organismes', Université de Lorraine, INRA-Nancy, Champenoux, 54280</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Grand Est</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Lorraine (région)</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Lorraine</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elegbede, Fabrice" sort="Elegbede, Fabrice" uniqKey="Elegbede F" first="Fabrice" last="Elegbede">Fabrice Elegbede</name></author><author><name sortKey="Husson, Claude" sort="Husson, Claude" uniqKey="Husson C" first="Claude" last="Husson">Claude Husson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Saintonge, Francois Xavier" sort="Saintonge, Francois Xavier" uniqKey="Saintonge F" first="François-Xavier" last="Saintonge">François-Xavier Saintonge</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marcais, Benoit" sort="Marcais, Benoit" uniqKey="Marcais B" first="Benoît" last="Marçais">Benoît Marçais</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global change biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Alnus (parasitology)</term><term>Climate Change (MeSH)</term><term>Cold Temperature (MeSH)</term><term>France (MeSH)</term><term>Hot Temperature (MeSH)</term><term>Models, Theoretical (MeSH)</term><term>Phytophthora (physiology)</term><term>Plant Diseases (parasitology)</term><term>Seasons (MeSH)</term><term>Soil (chemistry)</term><term>Soil (parasitology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Alnus (parasitologie)</term><term>Basse température (MeSH)</term><term>Changement climatique (MeSH)</term><term>France (MeSH)</term><term>Maladies des plantes (parasitologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term><term>Phytophthora (physiologie)</term><term>Saisons (MeSH)</term><term>Sol (composition chimique)</term><term>Sol (parasitologie)</term><term>Température élevée (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="chemistry" xml:lang="en"><term>Soil</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="composition chimique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sol</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="parasitologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Alnus</term><term>Maladies des plantes</term><term>Sol</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="parasitology" xml:lang="en"><term>Alnus</term><term>Plant Diseases</term><term>Soil</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Phytophthora</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Phytophthora</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate Change</term><term>Cold Temperature</term><term>France</term><term>Hot Temperature</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Basse température</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>France</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Température élevée</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni-induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24729529</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>20</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>16</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2486</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>20</Volume><Issue>10</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Oct</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global change biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Chang Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>3209-21</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/gcb.12601</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni-induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Aguayo</LastName><ForeName>Jaime</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>UMR1136 'Interactions Arbres/Micro-organismes', INRA, INRA-Nancy, Champenoux, 54280, France; UMR1136 'Interactions Arbres/Micro-organismes', Université de Lorraine, INRA-Nancy, Champenoux, 54280, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Elegbede</LastName><ForeName>Fabrice</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Husson</LastName><ForeName>Claude</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Saintonge</LastName><ForeName>François-Xavier</ForeName><Initials>FX</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Marçais</LastName><ForeName>Benoît</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>22</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Chang Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9888746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1354-1013</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><ChemicalList><Chemical><RegistryNumber>0</RegistryNumber><NameOfSubstance UI="D012987">Soil</NameOfSubstance></Chemical></ChemicalList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D029661" MajorTopicYN="N">Alnus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000469" MajorTopicYN="Y">parasitology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003080" MajorTopicYN="N">Cold Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005602" MajorTopicYN="N">France</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006358" MajorTopicYN="N">Hot Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010838" MajorTopicYN="N">Phytophthora</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010935" MajorTopicYN="N">Plant Diseases</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000469" MajorTopicYN="Y">parasitology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012987" MajorTopicYN="N">Soil</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000737" MajorTopicYN="N">chemistry</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000469" MajorTopicYN="N">parasitology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Alder</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Phytophthora</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">climate change</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">compartmental models</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">emerging diseases</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">riparian ecosystems</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2013</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2014</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2014</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>02</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2014</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2015</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24729529</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/gcb.12601</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li></country><region><li>Grand Est</li><li>Lorraine (région)</li></region><orgName><li>Université de Lorraine</li></orgName></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Elegbede, Fabrice" sort="Elegbede, Fabrice" uniqKey="Elegbede F" first="Fabrice" last="Elegbede">Fabrice Elegbede</name><name sortKey="Husson, Claude" sort="Husson, Claude" uniqKey="Husson C" first="Claude" last="Husson">Claude Husson</name><name sortKey="Marcais, Benoit" sort="Marcais, Benoit" uniqKey="Marcais B" first="Benoît" last="Marçais">Benoît Marçais</name><name sortKey="Saintonge, Francois Xavier" sort="Saintonge, Francois Xavier" uniqKey="Saintonge F" first="François-Xavier" last="Saintonge">François-Xavier Saintonge</name></noCountry><country name="France"><region name="Grand Est"><name sortKey="Aguayo, Jaime" sort="Aguayo, Jaime" uniqKey="Aguayo J" first="Jaime" last="Aguayo">Jaime Aguayo</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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